Are UK and EU businesses doing enough to decarbonise their fleets, or are they missing a strategic opportunity as regulations tighten and EV technology matures?
An applied research project by MBA students at Warwick Business School, in collaboration with sustainability consultancy Verco and global consultancy BIP UK, explores how businesses can accelerate fleet decarbonisation. Part of Warwick’s Leadership Plus module, the project focused on identifying practical strategies that combine emissions reduction with operational and financial benefits.
Guided by Verco and BIP consultants, the student team analysed market trends, emissions data, and cost modelling to develop a prototype Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) tool. This tool helps organisations assess various fleet transition options and pinpoint where EV adoption delivers the greatest value.
In one scenario, a mid-sized UK logistics fleet (42 vans, 21 trucks, 7 HGVs) could cut annual CO2 emissions from 2,416.4 tonnes to 829.1 tonnes (a 65.7% reduction) by switching to electric vehicles.
The modelling aligns with market trends suggesting TCO parity between EVs and diesel vehicles will be reached by 2026 across many vehicle classes, even before accounting for government subsidies. Daily operational savings of 30–50% are also possible, mainly due to reduced fuel and maintenance costs.
However, the project highlighted key barriers, especially the slow rollout of charging infrastructure. Half of UK fleet operators face delays of 12 months or more in securing necessary grid capacity, underlining the need for early planning, energy strategy integration, and engagement with local networks.
To support the transition, the team proposed a four-phase roadmap:
- 2025–2026 – Prioritise electrifying light commercial vehicles, where TCO parity is expected first.
- 2026–2028 – Expand electrification to medium and larger fleet assets, supported by improved battery technology and infrastructure.
- 2028–2030 – Begin transitioning heavy-duty vehicles, in line with grid expansion and EV advancements.
- 2030 onwards – Achieve full fleet decarbonisation, integrated with site-level energy systems and advanced fleet management tools.
“This has been a great example of how academic partnerships can generate practical tools and insights,” said Sebastian Varela Garcia, Head of Sustainability at BIP UK. The findings support informed decision-making around decarbonisation timelines and investment.
The work also contributes to BIP and Verco’s broader efforts in transport emissions reduction, combining TCO modelling with consulting to help businesses align with regulation and move toward net zero.